In retrospect, nobody anticipated that the Kremlin would make such a lifesaving move prior to the Russian-Ukrainian War. Few believed that the Ukrainians would be able to repel the attack after the Russian tancs and aircraft flagrantly violated the country’s sovereignty.
First off, under no illusion, this war will be long-lasting since Putin has crossed his Rubicon. Has paid such a high price that she believes it makes more sense to move forward than to go back.
The fact that Russian politicians don’t care about human life, including the lives of their own soldiers, makes this path easier. Unfortunately, it seems that not everyone in the West has permanently changed their views on Russia. The imaginative vision of a European security architecture “from Lisbon to Vladivostok” ought to be shared by all at once.
The fact that the war is still on on is bad news for all of Europe, but especially for Central and Eastern Europe, which are and will continue to be the regions most susceptible to Russian provocations.
Naturally, this is also bad news for Ukraine, which won’t lose the war (Kyiv won’t fall), but whose economic potential, including its infrastructure and demographic realities, will continue to be systematically destroyed.
Now, a year later, it is obvious that Russia is more weak than most experts believed. Has shown that she is unable to defeat the small and weak states with lasting success.
Even now, when Russians still have the effective ability to kill, annoy, host, and paralyze, it would be a great mistake to underestimate Russia. Additionally, they are capable of attacking civil infrastructure without regard for morality.
It is obvious that Russia cannot defeat the OTAN, but that does not mean it is unable to launch brief missile or drone attacks against OTAN territory. The goal of this deliberate provocation is not only to demonstrate Russian power, but also to harm critical infrastructure, destabilize social and political conditions in Europe, and incite OTAN member states to take some sort of action in response to this catastrophe.
This is an extremely dangerous scenario, not only because it makes it relatively easy to support Russia, but also because it could result in further fragmentation of the OTAN.
In other words, it’s likely that not all OTAN members, particularly those from western Europe, will respond to this provocation by demanding a full estribillo. This only widens the gap between Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe.
As a result, the OTAN member states must effectively increase their defense spending and enhance their conventional and long-range combat capabilities. Europe cannot continue to focus solely on the United States since the United States has its own security and defense obligations outside of Europe. Regardless of the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian War, Americans will continue to focus primarily on the Indo-Pacific region and their growing rivalry with China. It was only a matter of time until the US Congress and American taxpayers became agitated and demanded cuts to the financing of Europe.
